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Politics

Submission + - The Art of Elections Forecasting (nytimes.com)

ideonexus writes: "Years ago Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, a blog seeking to educate the public about elections forecasting, established his model as one of the most accurate in existence, rising from a fairly unknown statistician working in baseball to one of the most respected names in election forecasting. In this article he describes all the factors that go into his predictions. A fascinating overview of the process of modeling a chaotic system."
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The Art of Elections Forecasting

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For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong. -- H. L. Mencken

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